Operation Attribution Service : World Weather Attribution (WWA)
In the aftermath of an extreme weather event, the event is studied more and more often by an operational attribution service. Two examples of such operational attribution services are used within XAIDA. These operational services generally answer slightly different questions and are complementary.
WWA: World Weather Attribution (WWA), an initiative founded in 2014, aims to answer the question whether and to what extent climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of an extreme weather event, focusing on events with large impacts and aiming for global coverage.
Description
Working with scientists around the world, WWA quantifies how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of an extreme weather event in the immediate aftermath of the extreme event using weather observations and computer modelling. To understand what turned weather events into disasters and to encourage actions that will make communities and countries more resilient to future extreme weather events, WWA studies also evaluate how existing vulnerability worsened the impacts of the extreme weather event.
WWA mainly uses a probabilistic method for the analysis of extreme weather events, combined with other methods like analogues or stochastic models. So far WWA analysed different types of events: heatwaves, humid heatwaves, cold, extreme rainfall, drought, wildfires and tropical and extratropical cyclones. WWA holds press releases for international and regional media on every event analysed. All studies including scientific reports can be found at https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/
Potential User Groups
WWA aims to serve several user groups with different types of output: i) a press release in simplified language for the public and the media, ii) a web summary with the key messages for the science-literature audience, and iii) a scientific report with all study details for the scientific community and as basis for further research and outputs.
Guide for journalist
References
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/pathways-and-pitfalls-in-extreme-event-attribution/
van Oldenborgh, G.J., van der Wiel, K., Kew, S. et al. Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. Climatic Change 166, 13 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.: A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020.
Otto, F. E. L., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Vautard, R.: Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 159–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024, 2024.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003469.
Tools
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In the aftermath of an extreme weather event, the event is studied more and more often by an operational attribution service. Two examples of such operational attribution services are used within XAIDA. These operational services generally answer slightly different questions and are complementary.
World Weather Attribution (WWA), an initiative founded
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