WP6 • Heatwaves, droughts, and compounds summer events

WP6 is studying drivers and impacts of  heat waves, droughts and a set of summer compound events such as fire weather, including their characteristics (occurrence probability, magnitude, persistence and trends) and their modification in a warming climate.

The assessment of compound events is developing around case studies by extending traditional attribution techniques, as well as by building on the techniques developed in WP3 and WP4 and investigate projected changes in their characteristics under different global warming levels.

Relevant drivers of impacts have been identified through machine learning (ML) and causal approaches from WP3 and WP4. Potential worst-case droughts and heatwaves will be explored with the tools of WP5.

Some classes of compound events will be predefined (drought & heat, (humid) heat stress, fire risk). Other “non-standard” events will be identified through the interaction with stakeholders (WP2) and the parsing of data on biospheric impacts (WP3).