Description

The City of Paris prepared an action plan for extreme heat and asked IPSL on the climate and meteorological conditions that could lead to temperatures exceeding 50°C in Paris.

We probed the entire CMIP6 archive (including several scenarios of emissions) to seek such events. We showed that such an event is virtually impossible in SSP1-2.6, if global temperature increase is kept under 2°C. This event becomes highly possible by 2050, if global temperature increase is larger than 2.5°C.

This study can be transposed to other regions of the world. A French new start up company is working on the code optimization, and on its application to other regions, and other climate variables.

Potential User Groups

Urban planners

Guide

An overview and application of the tool is provided in the paper:

Yiou, P., R. Vautard, Y. Robin, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. D’Andrea, and R. Noyelle, 2024: How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation. Climate Services, 36, 100518, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518. 

Availability

Code including some guidance on how to use it on github: https://github.com/pascalyiou/Paris50C

Use Cases 

Note for the city of Paris (in French)  https://grec-idf.eu/simulations-paris-50c/

Reference

Yiou, P., R. Vautard, Y. Robin, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. D’Andrea, and R. Noyelle, 2024: How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation. Climate Services, 36, 100518, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518.