Description

The City of Paris prepared an action plan for extreme heat and asked IPSL on the climate and meteorological conditions that could lead to temperatures exceeding 50°C in Paris.

We probed the entire CMIP6 archive (including several scenarios of emissions) to seek such events. We showed that such an event is virtually impossible in SSP1-2.6, if global temperature increase is kept under 2°C. This event becomes highly possible by 2050, if global temperature increase is larger than 2.5°C.

This study can be transposed to other regions of the world. A French new start up company is working on the code optimization, and on its application to other regions, and other climate variables.

Potential Users:

Urban planners

An overview and application of the tool is provided in the paper: Yiou, P., R. Vautard, Y. Robin, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. D’Andrea, and R. Noyelle, 2024: How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation. Climate Services, 36, 100518, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518. 

Availability: code including some guidance on how to use it on github: https://github.com/pascalyiou/Paris50C

Use Cases: Note for the city of Paris (in French)  https://grec-idf.eu/simulations-paris-50c/

Reference: Yiou, P., R. Vautard, Y. Robin, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, F. D’Andrea, and R. Noyelle, 2024: How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation. Climate Services, 36, 100518, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518.