eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution
Sixteen European research institutes are joining forces with climate risk practitioners to better assess and predict the influence of climate change on extreme weather using novel artificial intelligence methods. This new EU-funded 4-year project, called “XAIDA”, started in September 2021.
One year ago, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, one of the initiators of XAIDA, passed away. He also laid down the foundations of rapid attribution.
DESPITE GLOBAL WARMING, COLD SPELLS SUCH AS WITNESSED IN THE 1980’s IN WESTERN EUROPE ARE STILL POSSIBLE
Extreme cold spells are still possible today in Western Europe, even with current warming trends.
The atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme low temperatures, e.g. as in January 1985, remain possible in current winters.
Under such conditions we anticipate that with current regional warming trends, temperatures would only be about 1.4°C warmer than in 1985, with potential impacts on the electricity grid, and health.
As an example, a circulation-induced 1985-like cold spell in today’s climate would likely stand at around -9°C over France for minimum temperatures, which would still be amongst the 5-10 coldest cold spells observed in the past five decades.
The “Medicanes” (Mediterranean Hurricanes) and climate change
Medicanes are Mediterranean cyclones whose characteristics resemble those of tropical cyclones. They are often associated with hurricane-force winds and heavy precipitation. With a frequency of 1-2 per year, it is a challenge to determine whether their frequency should increase or decrease in a warmer world. Their intensity is however projected to increase due to the warming projections for the Mediterranean sea, the main source of energy for medicanes.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY 2022
Located in Sorbonne University, Paris France, the XAIDA’s First General Assembly will take place from 12 to 14 October 2022, in an hybride format.