eXtreme events : Artificial Intelligence for Detection and Attribution
Sixteen European research institutes are joining forces with climate risk practitioners to better assess and predict the influence of climate change on extreme weather using novel artificial intelligence methods. This new EU-funded 4-year project, called “XAIDA”, started in September 2021.
In 2021, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, one of the initiators of XAIDA, passed away. He also laid down the foundations of rapid attribution.
News
How can we attribute weather extremes to climate change?
With climate change we see an increase in extreme weather events around the globe; occurrences of floods, heatwaves, and droughts. Within XAIDA, we aim to determine to what extent human induced climate change has altered the probability of occurrence and/or intensity of an extreme weather event, also known as attribution science. Several institutions work on attribution science, using different but complementary methodological frameworks. In this brief we explain the three main approaches used within XAIDA: unconditional probabilistic analysis, circulation analogues, and the storyline approach.
Paper: Simulations of a worst-case heatwave during the Paris Olympics in 2024
Read the paper: The Paris Olympics in 2024 will take place between July 26th to August 11th 2024, at the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle. Can the deadly 15-day temperature record of 2003 be broken in the present decades? How hot can it be in the Paris area?
Paper: Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy
Read the paper: This research employs an innovative approach by utilizing analogues of atmospheric patterns to scrutinize four notable Acqua Alta events in the Venice lagoon, specifically those connected with intense Mediterranean cyclones that transpired in 1966, 2008, 2018, and 2019. The findings provide compelling evidence that modifications in atmospheric circulation, while not solely attributable to human activities, are undeniably linked to the increased severity of these events, thereby illuminating the vulnerability of Venice to the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the study conducts a comprehensive assessment of the MoSE system, a crucial adaptation infrastructure designed to mitigate flooding in Venice, and underscores its effectiveness in protecting the city against events with historical analogues, particularly those akin to the catastrophic 1966 flood.
CHANGE OF GOVERNANCE
Life of the project – We are happy to announce that Dim COUMOU is now the Scientific Coordinator of the XAIDA Project, unanimously approved by the Consortium. Read more to know the context and the other changes in the XAIDA governance.
Paper: Heat Extremes in Western Europe warmed faster than simulated
Read the paper: Over the last 70 years, extreme heat in Western Europe has intensified with 3.4°C per degree global warming. A rate much larger than nearly anywhere else. Very few models capture the observed trend. None of them captures the large contribution from trends in atmospheric circulation.
The mismatch can be due to an underestimated circulation response to external forcing or underestimated unforced internal variability, or both. The former implies that heat extremes continue to intensify at an extreme rate, the latter that the trend continues but may slow down.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY 2023
Located in València, Spain, the XAIDA’s Second General Assembly took place in October 2023.
